Quelle est la différence entre forward guidance et dépendance aux données ?

La forward guidance engage la banque sur la suite. La dépendance aux données est l'inverse : la banque refuse de s'engager et décide réunion par réunion, selon les chiffres publiés.

Où lire la forward guidance de la BCE ?

Dans le communiqué de politique monétaire publié à 14 h 15 le jour de la décision, puis dans la déclaration introductive et les réponses de la conférence de presse à 14 h 45.

Forward guidance: definition

Also called: forward guidance

The indications a central bank gives about its future decisions. The market often reacts more to a change in wording than to the decision itself, which is already expected.

Steering expectations rather than rates

A rate decision affects the economy with a lag, and today's rate matters less than the one markets expect over the next two years. By saying in advance what it intends to do, a central bank acts directly on these expectations, and so on long-term rates and its currency, without touching its rate.

In French, it is called “orientation prospective”. The English term remains the most widely used, including in the ECB's translated statements.

The three forms of forward guidance

Qualitative: open wording, such as “rates will remain at their present levels for an extended period”. This is the form the ECB chose in July 2013, the first time it committed about the future.

Calendar-based: a date. In August 2011, the Fed announced exceptionally low rates “at least through mid-2013”.

Conditional: an economic threshold. The bank commits not to move as long as a figure, unemployment or inflation, hasn't reached a given level. It is the most credible form, and the most constraining.

What the trader does with it

The market often reacts more to a change of wording in the statement than to the decision itself. Comparing today's statement with the previous meeting's, sentence by sentence, is the first reflex: a phrase that disappears (“for an extended period”) sometimes signals the next move.

Since 2022, most central banks have dropped explicit commitments in favour of data dependence. Forward guidance hasn't disappeared, though: it works through speeches, projections and the Fed's dot plot.

The official statement, inside the terminal. →

Frequently asked questions

What's the difference between forward guidance and data dependence?: Forward guidance commits the bank to what comes next. Data dependence is the opposite: the bank refuses to commit and decides meeting by meeting, based on published figures.
Where can I read the ECB's forward guidance?: In the monetary policy statement published at 2:15 pm CET on decision day, then in the introductory statement and the answers at the 2:45 pm press conference.

This page explains a concept; it is not investment advice. Leveraged currency trading carries a high risk of losing capital.